The Closet Moderate: They Call Me "Prognostradamus"

Thursday, December 18, 2008

They Call Me "Prognostradamus"

Remember when I predicted that al-Maliki would take advantage of American security guarantees to consolidate his power?

I'd like to take this opportunity to pat myself on the back. As the article mentions, this strike could be an effort to preempt a coup. Certainly, the Interior Ministry and National Security Ministry would be the likely originators of any coup. That said, America is still--for better or for worse--invested in Iraqi democracy and we'd be unlikely to let a coup attempt succeed.

More likely, al-Maliki has seen the writing on the wall and is moving against his enemies while he still has cover from Centcom and the British. If he can remove his political adversaries while the United States maintains a deterrent military presence, he's positioned himself well for post-occupation rule.

Unrelatedly, it turns out that "an elite counterterrorism force that reports directly to the office of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki" is a useful Praetorian tool when you're in the business of seizing power.


Herodotus said...

If this is the worst thing to happen in Iraq over the next few months, I'd say that is pretty outstanding.

Statler said...

Look, the purpose of this entry is self-congratulation, not addressing the straw men you set up.